四、促进对外贸易基本平衡增长

    一个国家对外贸易是顺差还是逆差，主要由其经济结构以及产品或服务的国际竞争力决定。中国并不刻意追求对外贸易的顺差。中国服务贸易长期以来一直存在一定逆差。中国货物贸易在1990年以前多数年份都是逆差。1990年以后，随着大规模承接国际产业转移，工业制成品竞争力增强，出口增长速度超过进口，中国的货物贸易由总体逆差转变为总体顺差。2005年中国货物贸易顺差首次突破1000亿美元，并持续4年大幅攀升。2008年中国货物贸易顺差达到2981亿美元历史高点，此后逐渐收窄。2009年和2010年，中国货物贸易顺差分别为1957亿美元和1816亿美元，比上年分别下降34.4%和7.2%。2010年，中国货物贸易顺差占进出口总额的6.1%，占国内生产总值的3.1%。在全球贸易差额(顺差或逆差)最大的9个国家中，中国的这两个比值并不处在偏高水平。

    中国的货物贸易顺差反映了现阶段中国的国际分工地位。中国目前在工业制成品加工组装环节具有较大优势，是最大的工业品生产国和出口国。美国、欧盟等是最主要的终端消费市场。由于大量劳动密集型加工组装环节由日本、韩国、新加坡、中国台湾、中国香港等转移到中国，这些国家和地区原来对美、欧的顺差也转移到中国。其结果是，目前中国货物贸易顺差主要存在于中美贸易、中欧贸易之间，而中国与日本、韩国、东盟等工业中间品主要生产国则长期存在贸易逆差。2010年，中国对美国、欧盟的货物贸易顺差分别为1813亿美元和1428亿美元，对日本、韩国及东盟的货物贸易逆差共计1416亿美元；中国大陆对台湾地区货物贸易逆差860亿美元。中国生产和出口工业制成品需要大量进口初级产品，因此与一些初级产品出口国的货物贸易呈现逆差。正是现阶段中国制造业和服务业参与国际分工的水平和地位不同，所以中国货物贸易存在着大量顺差，而服务贸易则长期逆差。   

IV. Promoting Basically Balanced Growth of Foreign Trade

The primary factors determining whether a country's foreign trade is in surplus or deficit are its economic structure and the international competitiveness of its products or services. China does not pursue a foreign trade surplus intentionally. There has been a certain amount of deficit in China's services trade for a long time, and the trade in goods was in deficit for most of the years prior to 1990. After 1990, with large-scale industrial outsourcing and relocation, China enhanced its competitiveness in manufactured goods. Growth in exports overtook that of imports, turning the overall deficit to a surplus in trade in goods. In 2005 China's surplus in trade in goods reached 100 billion U.S. dollars for the first time, which was followed by vigorous growth for four consecutive years. In 2008 the surplus hit 298.1 billion U.S. dollars, the highest point in history, before slowing down gradually. The surpluses in trade in goods for 2009 and 2010 were 195.7 billion U.S. dollars and 181.6 billion U.S. dollars, down 34.4 percent and 7.2 percent year-on-year respectively. In 2010 China's surplus in trade in goods accounted for 6.1 percent of the total import and export volume and 3.1 percent of the GDP. Of the nine nations with the largest trade balances (favorable or unfavorable), China was not high up in the league table in terms of the two ratios.

(Table 2 Comparison of the Nine Countries with the Largest Balances in Trade in Goods in 2010)

The fact that China is enjoying a surplus in trade in goods reflects its position in the international division of labor at the current stage. China has now relatively big advantages in the processing and assembling of industrial products, and is the largest producer and exporter of industrial products. The United States, European Union and some other countries and regions are the major end consumer markets. With the transfer of large numbers of labor-intensive processing and assembling sectors to China from Japan, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong SAR and other nations and regions, their surpluses with the United States and Europe were also transferred to China. The result is that while China is currently enjoying a surplus in trade in goods primarily with the United States and Europe, it also has long-term trade deficits with Japan, Republic of Korea, ASEAN and other major intermediate producers. In 2010 China's surpluses in trade in goods with the United States and the European Union were 181.3 billion U.S. dollars and 142.8 billion U.S. dollars, respectively, and its total deficit in trade in goods with Japan, Republic of Korea and ASEAN was 141.6 billion U.S. dollars. The deficit in trade in goods between China's mainland and Taiwan reached 86 billion U.S. dollars. To produce and export industrial products, China needs to import large quantities of primary goods, thus creating a deficit in trade in goods with certain exporters of primary goods. It is the country's different level and status of participation in the international division of labor in manufacturing and the services industry that leads to China's big surplus in trade in goods but a long-term deficit in services trade.

(Figure 5 China's Trade Balances with Major Trading Partners 2006-2010)