最近一段时间,中国经济确实面临一些下行压力,这与国际经济环境的变化密切相关,因为中国已是一个高度开放的经济体。我们听到了一些对中国经济前景的担忧,但我要非常明确地告诉各位,中国经济不会硬着陆,中国开放的大门不会关上,中国改革的步伐不会停止。改革和开放是中国实现经济发展奇迹的两大重要法宝,已经成为了我们的基本国策。继续改革,继续开放,是中国全党全国的共识。中国经济将会在更加健康、更有效率的基础上保持长时期的中高速增长,并迈向中高端水平。
Of course, in the recent period, we are against some economic headwinds. This has a lot to do with the global economic environment, because we're now a very open economy. We hear some concerns about the Chinese economy, but let me make it very clear to the friends here that there will not be economic hard landing in China. China will not close its door of openness, and the reform in China will not come to a stop. We have relied on reform and opening for our past growth, and the entire party and country in China agree that we need to continue with reform and opening. There shouldn't be any doubt about that. And this year, the economy will be even more healthier and efficient. And we're looking at mid to high rate of growth for a considerable period of come, and the economy will move to the middle to the higher end of the value chain.
这个自信来自于何处?我并不是经济专家,我在这里只想告诉大家中国经济具有的三个重要优势和潜力。
Where does our confidence come from? I'm no economist, but let me talk about the three key advantages of the Chinese economy.
第一个优势是中国的巨大市场潜力。昨天在美国国会,有几个议员对我说,美方对同中国的贸易不平衡特别重视,我们买了中国太多的东西,中国买得太少。我告诉他们,不要着急,情况一定会变化,因为中国拥有13亿人口,也就是说中国的市场规模是美国的四倍。中国正在从潜在的市场快速成长为现实的市场,这个市场一旦成熟,肯定会从美国和全世界买更多的东西,到那时,就可能变成中国对美国的巨大逆差了。当然,美国需要向中国提供更加物美价廉的商品。
First of all, we have a huge market potential in China. Yesterday afternoon I was up on Capitol Hill, and some members of Congress said to me that the United States has a serious trade imbalance with China; we're buying too much from China, you are buying too little from us. And I said to him, Mr. Congressman, just wait a little longer and the situation will change, because the Chinese market is potentially four times the size of the American market and it is emerging rapidly to become a real market. It's a market of 1.3 billion people. It's going to mature very soon. And when that day comes, China will run a large deficit and we will buy lots of goods from the United States – high-quality and inexpensive goods from this country. And that day is sure to come.
第二个优势是中国城镇化的发展。发达国家的城镇化水平一般在80%以上。但中国目前的城镇化,如果按照户籍人口计算还不到40%。也就是说,我们还有巨大的空间和潜力,还有巨大的城镇化需求有待开发。这里面蕴藏着巨大的商机。
The second key advantage of the Chinese economy is the pace of urbanization. Well, developed economies have an urbanization rate of around or above 80 percent. But when you look at China, the registered urban population is less than 40 percent. In other words, we have enormous potential and room to tap. And herein lies enormous business opportunities.