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然而,贸易摩擦并没有让美国再次伟大。德意志银行测算,2018年以来贸易纠纷使美国股市损失5万亿美元。去年美国34个州对华出口下降,其中24个州出现两位数降幅。美农产品对华出口同比减少33.1%,其中大豆降幅近50%,仅美国中西部地区就有84个农场申请破产,创金融危机以来的最高纪录,大豆全行业损失比2008年金融危机还大。美国智库“贸易伙伴”报告显示,如美国对所有中国输美商品加征25%的关税,美国国内生产总值将减少1.01%,就业岗位将减少216万个,一个四口之家每年支出将增加2294美元。
Moreover, trade disputes are not making America "great again". According to Deutsche Bank, trade disputes have cost US stock markets over US$ 5 trillion. 34 American states have witnessed losses in their exports to China in 2018, with 24 of them seeing a double digit decrease.
The US agriculture sector was impacted most severely, with an estimated loss of over 33%. The export of the US soybeans plummeted by 50%, and 84 soybean farms in the Mid-West have filed for bankruptcy. The whole US soybean industry is experiencing the worst period since the 2008 global financial crisis.
Trading Partnership, an American think-tank, calculates that if the US imposes 25 percent additional tariffs on all imported Chinese goods, the US GDP will decrease by 1.01 percent, with 2.16 million job losses and an additional annual burden of US$2,294 on a family of four.
中国始终主张通过谈判磋商解决经贸摩擦,但决不会在压力下退缩。我们不会为不合理的高要价买单,更不会接受任何涉及中国主权事务的强制性要求。
中国的立场和态度一贯明确,谈,大门敞开;打,奉陪到底。要谈就要秉持相互尊重、平等互利的精神,本着善意和诚信,且必须尊重彼此的主权和尊严。上世纪50到70年代,美国曾主导实施了对中国极为严酷的政治、经济、技术、军事全方位封锁,但中国没有被吓倒,也没有被压倒,凭借独立自主、自力更生,研制出了原子弹、氢弹和人造卫星,并建立了完备的工农业体系。那些身在21世纪但头脑还停留在上个世纪的人是注定要失败的,那些期待中华民族停止复兴进程的人也是注定要失败的。
Facing with the escalating trade frictions, China's position has stayed the same: we have to resolve the issues through negotiation and consultation. However, China will not succumb to the pressure, will not accommodate the exorbitant demands and will by no means accept the mandatory requirements concerning China's sovereign affairs.
China is open to negotiation, but will also fight to the end if needed. The negotiation must be carried out in the principle of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit. Parties must come to the table with good will and sincerity, and must respect the other side's dignity and sovereignty.
From the 1950s to the 1970s, the US has orchestrated and maintained extreme political, economic, technological and military blockade against China. But the US has failed to bring China to its knees. On the contrary, China has relied on itself and managed to establish a complete agricultural and industrial system. It was during the harsh blockade that China successfully tested its first atomic bomb, first hydrogen bomb and launched the first satellite. Those who live in the 21st Century while keeping the old mentalities of the last century are bound to fail. And those who wish to obstruct China's national rejuvenation are bound to fail.
面临发展道路上的风险和挑战,中国有信心迎难而上,化危为机,开拓一片新天地。事实上,中国经济对外贸依赖度已有实质性下降,中国外贸依存度从2010年的48.8%下降到2018年的33.5%。国内消费已连续5年成为经济增长第一动力,对经济增长贡献率为76.2%。据渣打银行的一份研究报告,美国市场对中国经济的贡献率也已从2006年占GDP6.3%下降到2017年的3%左右。尽管受到压力,中国经济依然保持强劲,去年中国GDP增长6.6%,出口增长9.9%。今年一季度GDP增长6.4%,出口增长1.4% 。中国市场依然受到外资青睐,今年1至4月,中国实际利用外资同比增长6.4%。与此同时,国内的结构性改革将带来产品和企业竞争力的全面提升,财政和货币政策的充分空间,都能保持经济持续健康发展的良好态势,中国经济发展前景乐观。
Whatever the future might bring, China is confident of meeting challenges head-on, turning risks into opportunities, and opening new chapters.
Over the years, China has substantially decreased its reliance on export. China's trade dependence has dropped from 48.8% in 2010 to 33.5% in 2018. Domestic consumption has been the largest driving force for 5 consecutive years, contributing 76.2% to China's GDP growth. According to Standard Chartered, the US market contributes 6.3% of China's GDP in 2006, but in 2017, the number has dropped to 3%.
Despite the external pressure, China's economy remains robust. In 2018, China's GDP and export grew by 6.6% and 9.9% respectively. In the first quarter of 2019, China's GDP registered an increase of 6.4% and export further expanded by 1.4%.
Nonetheless, China is still a popular destination for foreign investment. In the first four months of 2019, China saw an increase of 6.4% in the actual inflow of Foreign Direct Investment. China is also steadily moving ahead with structural reforms, so as to further unleash the competitiveness of Chinese companies and products. Room for fiscal and monetary policy maneuvers will be sufficient. All these are contributing to the long-term sustainable growth of China.
贸易是互惠互利,战争是相互毁灭,这两个词本不应放到一起。经贸领域的分歧和摩擦,只应通过对话和磋商来解决。一个互利双赢的经贸协议将符合各方的利益和世界各国的期待。
Trade is supposed to be mutually beneficial, but wars are doomed to end in mutual destruction. The two words should never be put together. Dialogue and consultation is the only way to resolve economic and trade frictions. A win-win trade deal will serve the interests of all parties and meet the expectations of the world.