Dear Mr. Douglas Paal, Ladies and Gentlemen,

尊敬的包道格先生，女士们，先生们，

Good morning. I want to thank The Carnegie Endowment, Tsinghua University and Peking University for inviting me.

上午好！感谢卡内基国际和平基金会、清华大学、北京大学邀请我出席此次研讨会。

As today's discussion is about "a result-oriented US-China relationship", let me start by raising a couple of questions about it and making a few points for us to further explore.

这次研讨会的主题是"实现‘结果导向'的中美关系"。对此我想提以下几个问题，与大家探讨。

In general, we do not oppose the result-oriented notion. But do we have a clear and shared understanding of what it is really about? What should we do together to achieve positive results in the interests of our long-term relations? Are we fully aware of the risk of losing sight of the overall direction if we overemphasize specific results on specific issues?

我们总体上不反对"结果导向"这一概念。但是，我们对这个概念是否有清晰的共识？我们应如何共同努力以达成有利于中美长远利益的积极结果？我们是否意识到过度强调一时一事可能导致两国总体关系跑偏的风险？

A good overall China-U.S. relationship should be the overarching "result". In its absence, no desirable result can be achieved. In other words, do we have a long-term goal for the relationship as we ride the ups and downs forward? There is an ongoing debate about whether China and the United States will be able to escape the so-called "Thucydides's trap" or are we destined for war. According to historians, there have been 16 cases so far in history when a "rising power" encountered an "established power". Out of the 16, 12 ended in war and conflict and only 4 had a relatively peaceful transition. Into which category will China-US relations eventually fall?

总体良好的中美关系是我们追求的最大结果。没有这样的共识，其他的结果也无法达成。换言之，中美关系需要设定一个长期目标，以克服各种眼前的波折起伏。人们一直在讨论中美能否避免所谓"修昔底德陷阱"，或中美是否"注定一战"。历史学家告诉我们，历史上曾出现16次新兴大国和既有大国相遇的案例。在这16个案例中，12次以战争或冲突收场，其余4次实现了相对和平的过渡。中国和美国的相遇，将是哪种结果？

My answer is neither. War and conflict should certainly not be our option. Even a peaceful transition should not be what we really aim at. Our historical mission is not the transfer of global dominance from one power to another. Rather it should be the making of a new model of international relations where countries especially the major ones coexist peacefully on the basis of mutual respect and engage in win-win cooperation for global stability and prosperity. This should be the overarching result that the two countries have to work together to achieve, if a "result-oriented" approach is to be followed.

我认为两者都不是。战争和冲突当然不应是我们的选项，甚至和平过渡也不应是我们的目标。我们肩负的历史使命不是把全球主导权从一个国家转向另一个国家，而是建立一种新型国际关系，使世界各国尤其是主要大国在相互尊重、合作共赢的基础上和平共处，共同维护全球稳定与繁荣。如果说要"结果导向"，这就是中美两国必须共同努力达成的大结果。