在俄罗斯与美欧关系日趋冷淡之际,中俄之间相对亲热的关系再次引起关注。西方学者和媒体记者对中俄伙伴关系的性质展开了讨论,探寻这种伙伴关系是否会走向结盟。
At a time when Russian relations with the United States and western European countries are growing cold, the relatively warm ties between China and Russia have attracted renewed interest. Scholars and journalists in the West find themselves debating the nature of the Chinese-Russian partnership and wondering whether it will evolve into an alliance.
冷战结束后,西方关于中俄关系的评估及其走势的猜测通常有两大种观点。一种认为中俄关系脆弱,不可预料,充斥不确定因素——许多支持这种观点的人称之为基于利害关系的"权宜婚姻",认为两国不太可能越走越近,反而很可能渐行渐远。而另一种观点认为,战略甚至意识形态的考量构成中俄关系的基础,预言两国——都视美国为实现自身意图可能的阻碍——未来必然会结成反美、反西方联盟。
Since the end of the Cold War, two main views have tended to define Western assessments of the Chinese-Russian relationship and predictions of its future. The first view holds that the link between Beijing and Moscow is vulnerable, contingent, and marked by uncertainties – a "marriage of convenience," to use the phrase favored by many advocates of this argument, who see it as unlikely that the two countries will grow much closer and quite possible that they will begin to drift apart. The other view posits that strategic and even ideological factors form the basis of Chinese-Russian ties and predicts that the two countries – both of which see the United States as a possible obstacle to their objectives – will eventually form an anti-U.S., anti-Western alliance.
这两种观点都没有准确地反映中俄关系的实质。中俄关系是稳定的战略伙伴关系,并非所谓的"权宜婚姻":其内容丰富、基础牢固。冷战后的国际关系演变进一步拉近了两国的关系。一些西方分析家和政府官员推测(可能有人甚至希望)俄罗斯深度介入当前叙利亚和乌克兰的冲突,将导致北京和莫斯科关系紧张——甚至破裂。事实上,这样的状况并没有发生。
Neither view accurately captures the true nature of the relationship. The Chinese-Russian relationship is a stable strategic partnership and by no means a marriage of convenience: it is complex, sturdy, and deeply rooted. Changes in international relations since the end of the Cold War have only brought the two countries closer together. Some Western analysts and officials have speculated (and perhaps even hoped) that the ongoing conflicts in Syria and Ukraine, in which Russia has become heavily involved, would lead to tensions between Beijing and Moscow – or even a rupture. But that has not happened.
不过,中国无意与俄罗斯正式结盟,也不会结成任何形式的反美、反西方联盟。相反,北京希望稳定中俄关系,为这两大邻国实现国家发展目标提供安全的环境,通过互利互惠的合作彼此提供支持,从而为大国处理分歧和开展合作提供范例,这有利于巩固国际体系。
Nevertheless, China has no interest in a formal alliance with Russia, nor in forming an anti-U.S. or anti-Western bloc of any kind. Rather, Beijing hopes that China and Russia can maintain their relationship in a way that will provide a safe environment for the two big neighbors to achieve their development goals and to support each other through mutually beneficial cooperation, offering a model for how major countries can manage their differences and cooperate in ways that strengthen the international system.