华尔街日报：您是否担心中美贸易战会产生经济外溢效应？
崔大使：问题关键在于，如果事态继续像现在这样发展，就会产生真正的风险，全球市场可能会被撕裂。在过去几十年中，随着世贸组织的成立，以及中、俄等新兴市场经济体和其他国家相继加入其中，我们清楚地看到了全球市场真正实现了“全球化”发展，看到了全球供应链重塑使更多国家参与到一体化之中。
但如果我们任由当前形势发展下去，这指的不仅是中美之间，还包括美国与其他国家之间以及多边体系发展的形势，那么全球一体化市场可能面临分崩离析的风险。我不知道这会符合哪个国家的利益，总之这不符合中美两国的利益。
WSJ: Are you concerned about the possible economic fallout from the trade battle?
Ambassador Cui: The problem is that if things go on like this, there's a real risk the global market might become fragmented. In the last few decades, we've seen a clear trend for the global market to be really globalized with the establishment of WTO [World Trade Organization] itself and with so-called emerging market economies like China, Russia, all the rest, joining the WTO. And we do see the restructuring of the global supply chain, integrating most of the countries.
But if we allow the current situation to go on, not only between China and the United States, but also between the U.S. and other countries and also on the multilateral front, there's a real risk that the integrating global market might become fragmented. I don't know whether this will serve the interests of any country. I don't think that this will serve the interests of China. I don't think it will serve the interests of the United States.
同时，虽然当前美国经济状况不错，但也不能排除会再次发生类似十年前的情况——当然我不想用危机重演这样的说法——但如果真发生了，依当前这种形势看，你认为人们还能同2008年一样，有意愿并采取开放的态度来实施有效的国际政策协调和经济刺激政策吗？我对此不确定。
华尔街日报：您认为中美贸易摩擦加剧的话，是否会导致全球经济衰退？
And also, although the current economic situation in the U.S. is good, people cannot rule out the possibility of another-I don't want to use the word "crisis"-a similar situation as what happened 10 years ago. But under the current circumstances, do you think that people will still be as ready and open as they were in 2008 to have effective international policy coordination and coordinated stimulus actions? I'm not sure about that.
WSJ: In your view could the trade fight, if it worsens, lead to a global recession?
崔大使：中美是世界上最大的两个经济体。中美经济关系有任何风吹草动，都会对全球产生影响。这是不争的事实和现实。换句话说，中美要充分认识到，两国对全球经济和经济增长前景承担共同责任。如果我们以互利共赢的方式及时解决经贸问题，必将增强人们对全球经济前景的信心。如果我们做不到，则可能会削弱人们对全球经济的信心。
在经济和金融问题上，信心非常重要。如果人们失去信心，那么很多坏事都可能发生，其中一些可能成为“自证预言”。所以我认为，中美作为世界上最大的两个经济体，必须充分意识到这一点并采取负责任的行动。
Ambassador Cui: We are the two largest economies in the world, so whatever happens in our economic cooperation will have an impact globally. This is just a fact, this is reality. So in other words, we have to be fully aware of our shared responsibility to the global economy, the prospects of global economic growth. If we solve our economic issues in a mutually beneficial way and in a timely manner, it will certainly enhance people's confidence about global economic prospects. If we fail to do that, probably it will weaken people's confidence for the global economy.
For economic and financial issues, confidence is very important. If people lose confidence, then a lot of bad things could happen. Some of these things could become self-fulfilling prophecies. So I think as the two largest economies in the world, we have to be fully aware of this and we have to act responsibly.
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