Most important, the fragilities that made emerging economies so susceptible to crisis in the past are now largely absent. Banks have more capital and rely less on fickle wholesale funding than their European peers. Fixed exchange rates were once the rule for developing countries. They were a way to keep down inflation, but they also encouraged excessive borrowing in foreign currencies, creating strains that eventually broke the currency peg. With inflation under much better control, floating exchange rates and well-stocked foreign-exchange reserves now dominate in the emerging world, providing protection against falling exports and flighty foreign investors.
最重要的是，过去那些让新兴市场易受冲击的弱点如今基本消失殆尽了。银行有了充裕的资金，比起欧洲各大银行，他们较少依赖缺乏稳定性的批发融资业务。固定的外汇汇率曾是发展中国家的一条准则。他们据此保持低通货膨胀，但另一方面却刺激大量外汇借入，从而产生汇率压力，最终打破货币钉住政策。如今通货膨胀得到了很好的控制，大多数发展中国家都采取了浮动的汇率制度和充足的外汇储备，因而缓解了出口下降以及外资转移的冲击。
A slump in these countries thus looks unlikely; however, nor does a return to the past decade's growth rates. China, for one, doesn't want it. Its economy has become over-reliant on investment; its leaders want to usher in a phase of more sustainable but slower growth, led by consumers. Beyond China, it is increasingly clear that many emerging economies have been growing beyond their underlying potential. Optimists once thought India could sustain Chinese-style growth of over 9% a year; but that led to stubborn inflation and current-account deficits, suggesting that India's potential growth may be more like 6%~7%.
因此，这些国家出现大幅下滑的可能性不大，但是恢复到过去十年的增长同样不大可能。中国也不希望那样快速增长。中国经济已经过分依赖投资，中国领导人希望中国经济转向一个较慢的可持续发展的轨道，经济增长更多依靠消费。除了中国之外，愈加明显的事实是，许多新兴国家的增长已经超过其自身的潜力。乐观主义者曾经以为，印度可能以中国式9%的经济增长率实现经济增长，但那样会带来顽固的通货膨胀和经常账户赤字。这表明印度的潜在增长率大约为6%～7%。
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