财政刺激需要充分的国际协调
第二个（及相关的）挑战是确保那些有足够财政空间的国家出台的短期经济刺激政策是经过国际协调并考虑到良性的全球平衡的。在欧洲，与其现行由债务国家通过痛苦的、不均衡的衰退性通货紧缩“来调整，不如在欧元区推动通货再膨胀，同时在债务国推行紧缩与结构调整。美国将同样需要考虑这样一个渐进的步骤。应优先刺激需求以减少失业，特别是加大公共投资和直接创造就业机会”。这将有助于家庭去杠杆，通过增加收入促进消费需求。中国和其他亚洲经济体通过基础设施投资和其他结构性措施，可以在中期加强出口竞争力，以便有足够的时间去将经济结构调整至更加依靠国内需求。
Fiscal Stimulus Requires Adequate International Coordination
The second (and related) challenge is to ensure that additional short-term stimulus by economies with adequate fiscal space is coordinated and consistent with benign global rebalancing. In Europe, instead of the present asymmetric adjustment through recessionary deflation—where most of the pain is concentrated on the countries in debt distress—it would entail a more symmetrical approach of austerity and structural reforms in the countries in distress combined with euro area-wide reflation. The United States would equally need to consider such a sequenced approach.The first priority should be to boost demand in order to reduce unemployment, especially through public investment and more direct job creation. This would help households delever and boost consumption demand through income growth. Infrastructure investment and other structural measures would underpin strengthened export competitiveness over the medium run, giving time for China and other Asian economies to rebalance towards greater reliance on domestic demand growth.
良性全球平衡与就业复苏是可行的。使用联合国全球政策模型模拟分析一下短期刺激措施，包括协调一致的短期刺激计划、有序的主权债务重组，为创造就业机会和实现可持续发展而采取的结构性政策，其结果显示这对所有的经济体来说都将是双赢的局面，因为与基准相比，可以显著促进国内生产总值和就业增长，同时减少公共债务占国内生产总值的比率，而只需做有限的汇率调整。在2012 ~2015年间，全球产量的增长将超过每年4%，特别是发达经济体将脱离缓慢的成长。与缺乏政策协调的基准形势相比，发展中国家也将达到一个较高的增长水平。最重要的是就业率，尤其是在发达国家，将恢复到接近危机前的水平，也大致消除了2008~2009年全球金融危机留下的六千四百万个就业岗位的赤字。
To achieve such benign global rebalancing with accelerated job recovery seems feasible. Simulations with the United Nations Global Policy Model—reflecting the key policy directions suggested above and those below regarding coordinated short-term global stimulus, orderly sovereign debt workouts and structural policies aimed at stronger job creation and sustainable development—show that this would be a win-win scenario for all economies, as it would significantly enhance GDP and employment growth compared with the baseline, while reducing public debt-to-GDP ratios and requiring limited exchange-rate realignment. Global output growth would accelerate to over 4 percent per year during the period 2012~2015, especially since developed economies would be lifted from their anaemic growth, while developing countries would also reach a higher growth path compared with the baseline situation where policy coordination is absent. Most importantly, employment rates, especially among developed countries, would recover to near pre-crisis levels and, by and large, undo the deficit of 64 million jobs left by the global crisis of 2008~2009.
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