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G20峰会是中美贸易摩擦的局点还是赛点?(中英对照)

发布时间: 2019-07-16 09:15:55   作者:译聚网   来源: 外交部   浏览次数:


  就中方而言,这场贸易摩擦完全是被迫应战,是反击经济霸凌之战,维护自身核心利益和正当发展权益之战,也是捍卫国际经济秩序和自由贸易体系之战。上个月,中国国务院新闻办公室发表《关于中美经贸磋商的中方立场》白皮书,全面阐明了中方对“贸易战”问题的立场,我在此不再赘述,愿仅指出四点基本事实:

China was pulled into the trade war, with its back to the wall. For China, this is a war to combat economic bullying, a war to safeguard our legitimate right of development, and a war to safeguard the international rules and the multilateral trade system. Last month, the State Council Information Office of the People's Republic of China issued a white paper entitled China's Position on the China-U.S. Economic and Trade Consultations, which comprehensively elaborated on China's position on the trade disputes, so I would not go into details here. Instead, I wish to point out four basic facts.

  一,美方一手挑起对华贸易摩擦,本质是借“公平贸易”之名,行“经济霸凌”之实;手段是挥舞关税“大棒”,推行单边主义和保护主义;目的是服务“美国优先”政策,胁迫中国放弃自身利益和发展权益。

  二,美方适得其反,正为此付出惨痛代价:拉升了国内生产成本,抬高了本国物价水平,降低了经济增长速度,阻碍了对华出口规模。根据福布斯网站最新统计数据,与2018年前4个月相比,美国石油出口减少24.9亿美元,其中向中国出口从11%下降至2.6%;石油气对华出口下降87%,减少6.4亿美元;棉花对华出口下降48.33%,减少2.89亿美元;大豆对华出口下降27.49%,减少7.1亿美元。美国国内反对贸易战的声浪此起彼伏,日益高涨。

Firstly, the ultimate motive of the U.S. starting the trade war towards China is to bully the latter under the name of "fair trade". The U.S., wielding its "club of tariff" and carrying the banner of unilateralism and protectionism, blatantly pursues the policy of "America First" and tries to coerce China into giving up its own interests and development rights.

Secondly, the U.S. decisions are counterproductive, and it is getting a taste of its own medicine. Due to the trade war, the domestic production costs and prices have raised significantly, and the economic growth of the U.S. has been hindered and the exports from the U.S. to China has scaled down.

According to the latest statistics on the Forbes website, oil exports from the U.S. fell by 2.49 billion USD compared with the first four months of 2018, among which the exports to China fell from 11% to 2.6%. The LPG exports from the U.S. to China fell by 87%, decreasing 640 million USD. Cotton exports from the U.S. to China fell by 48.33%, decreasing 289 million USD. Soybean exports to China fell by 27.49%, decreasing 710 million USD. The objections against the trade war inside the U.S. have been making waves, and are only getting louder.

  三,美国低估了中国维护核心利益反击经济霸凌的实力。作为世界第二大经济体,中国拥有任何国家都不想失去的、也无可替代的庞大市场,拥有完整的产业链条,便利的基础设施和良好的营商环境。出口对中国经济的拉动作用持续减小,而消费连续五年成为经济增长第一动力,2018年对经济增长贡献率达到76.2%。事实证明,从美方发起挑战至今,中国经济非但没有如美方预言那样“垮掉”,反而保持持续健康发展的良好态势。

Thirdly, the U.S. has underestimated China's determination and capacity to safeguard its core interests and to counter economic bullying. As the world's second largest economy, China has a huge and irreplaceable domestic market that no country could bear to lose. China has its complete industry chain, advanced infrastructures and business-friendly environments. Consumption has become the main driver of China's economic growth for five consecutive years, with a contribution rate of 76.2% to China's economic growth in 2018, while the contribution rate of exports has been decreasing. As a matter of fact, instead of a total collapse as predicted by the U.S., the Chinese economy has maintained a good momentum of sustained and steady development.

  四,捍卫多边贸易体系、建设开放型世界经济是“人间正道”。马来西亚以贸易立国,2018年马经济对外贸的依存度达到130%。维护一个公平、开放、透明的多边贸易体系,对包括马来西亚在内的所有国家实现可持续发展至关重要。短期看,亚洲国家某些产业也许会成为美国和中国企业寻找进口替代和生产转移的受益者,但长远看,各个经济体之间是一个整体,是全球价值链的组成部分,任何链条停摆,都会带来整个体系的损失。以投机主义、侥幸心态来看待中美贸易战,以为能够幸免于难甚至从中获利,是不切实际的想法。

Lastly, it is only right to defend the multilateral trading system and to build an open world economy. Malaysia is a pro-trade country with a highly globalized economy, with exports and imports of goods and services equivalent to about 130% of GDP in 2018. A fair, open and transparent international trade system is crucial to each country's development and prosperity, including Malaysia.

In short term, Asian countries like Malaysia may become the beneficiaries of production relocation or import substitute caused by the trade war. However in the long run, all Asian economies work as a part of the global value chain. Any break in the chain will cause systematic damage to all of us. It is an unrealistic idea to look at the China-U.S. trade war with opportunism or a fluke mind, hoping that any of us could survive or even profit from it.



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