面临金融危机的发展中国家往往发现自己的国际储备已经降到了很低的水平。对于一个实行固定汇率的国家而言,一旦其外汇储备耗尽,除了让本币贬值以外,它可能别无选择。一个没有流动外汇储备的国家可能无法偿还以前已经延期的短期外币借款。与银行挤兑原理相同,市场对于潜在的违约或者贬值的担心可能使得挤兑变成现实。如果市场信心丧失,储备就会很快消失,而且也不可能从外国得到新的贷款。由此导致的流动性紧缩可能会使一个国家无法履行其偿还剩余外债的义务。
这种“银行挤兑”机制已经成为很多发展中国家危机的核心,包括1997~1998年的亚洲金融危机。亚洲金融危机影响了全世界的许多国家,危机过后一些经济学家建议应该由发展中国家自己来解决问题。因为外国贷款往往在它们最需要的时候枯竭,所以这些国家可以通过积累大量活动基金——美元、欧元以及其他被广为接受的货币,来给予自己最好的保护。
【参考译文】
High International Reserves in Developing Countries
Developing countries facing financial crises typically find that their international reserves have reached very low levels. A country that is fixing its exchange rate may have little choice but to let its currency depreciate once its reserves have run out. A country without liquid foreign exchange reserves may have no means to repay lenders who have previously extended short-term foreign-currency loans. Like a run on a bank, market fears about potential default or depreciation can be self-fulfilling. If market confidence fails, reserves will quickly disappear and no new borrowing from foreigners will be possible. The resulting liquidity crunch may make it impossible for a country to meet its remaining foreign obligations.
This type of "bank run" mechanism has been at the heart of many developing-country crises, including the Asian economic crisis of 1997-1998. Following the Asian crises, which affected a large number of countries throughout the world, several economists suggested that developing countries take matters into their own hands. Because foreign credit tends to dry up precisely when it is most needed, countries could best protect themselves by accumulating large war chests of ready cash - dollars, euros,and other widely acceptable foreign currencies.
【知识小贴士】
亚洲金融危机(Asian Financial Crisis)
亚洲金融危机发生于1997年7月至10月,由泰国开始,之后进一步影响了邻近亚洲国家的货币、股票市场和其他的资产价值。
1997年7月2日,亚洲金融风暴席卷泰国,泰铢贬值。不久,这场风暴扫过了马来西亚、新加坡、日本和韩国等地。打破了亚洲经济急速发展的景象。亚洲一些经济大国的经济开始萧条,一些国家的政局也开始混乱。这次危机一直持续到l998年底,对亚洲许多国家产生了重大影响。
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