世界银行2018年6月5日发布的《全球经济展望》报告指出，全球关税广泛上升将会给全球贸易带来重大负面影响，至2020年全球贸易额下降可达9%，对新兴市场和发展中经济体的影响尤为明显，特别是那些与美国贸易或金融市场关联度较高的经济体（图14）。世界贸易组织总干事罗伯特·阿泽维多表示，若关税回到关税总协定/世界贸易组织之前的水平，全球经济将立即收缩2.5%，全球贸易量削减60%以上，影响将超过2008年国际金融危机。贸易战对所有人都有害，特别是穷人将损失63%的购买力。历史教训一再表明，贸易战没有赢家，甚至会给世界和平和发展带来严重影响（专栏8）。
图表：图14：全球关税升至世界贸易组织规则允许的最高水平对贸易额的影响 新华社发
图表：表6：美国挑起贸易摩擦对全球经济的影响 新华社发
图表：专栏8 美国1930年《斯姆特—霍利关税法》的历史教训 新华社发
According to “Global Economic Prospects” published by the World Bank on June 5, 2018, a broad-based increase in tariffs worldwide would have major adverse consequences, which could translate into a decline in global trade amounting to 9 percent by 2020. The impact would be more severe on emerging markets and developing economies, particularly on those with large trade or financial market linkages with the US (Chart 14). According to WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo, if tariffs return to the pre-GATT/WTO level, the global economy would contract by 2.5 percent instantly and more than 60 percent of global trade would disappear, creating an impact more serious than that of the 2008 global financial crisis. A trade war is detrimental to all, and particularly to the poor, who could lose 63 percent of their purchasing power. History has proven time and again that trade wars produce no winners and can severely affect world peace and development (Box 8).
Chart 14: Impact on Trade in the Case of Tariff Increase to Bound Levels
Source: “Global Economic Prospects”, World Bank
Table 6: Impact of Trade Frictions
Provoked by the United States on the Global Economy
Sources: WTO, IMF, Barclays Capital, Standard & Poor’s, Bank of England and Bank of France
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