第四，这是美国对华高技术产品出口管制的结果。美国在高新技术产品贸易方面拥有巨大竞争优势，但美国政府基于冷战思维，长期对华实施严格的出口管制，人为抑制了美国优势产品对华出口潜力，造成美企业丧失大量对华出口机会，加大了中美货物贸易逆差。据美国卡内基国际和平基金会2017年4月的报告分析，美国若将对华出口管制放松至对巴西的水平，美国对华贸易逆差可缩减24%；如果放松至对法国的水平，美国对华贸易逆差可缩减35%。由此可见，美国高技术产品对华出口的潜力远未充分发挥，美国不是不可以减少对华贸易逆差，只是自己关闭了增加对华出口的大门。

Fourth, this is the consequence of US export control over high-tech products exported to China. The US boasts huge competitive strength in high-tech trade. Yet, haunted by the cold-war mentality, it imposes strict export controls on China, thereby limiting the potential of advantageous US exports, causing significant lost export opportunities, and widening its trade deficit with China. According to a report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in April 2017 , if US export controls on China were relaxed to the level of those on Brazil, its deficit could be cut by 24%, and 35% if relaxed to the level of France. Evidently there remains a huge potential to be tapped in high-tech exports to China. If the US had not itself closed the door, it could well have seen its trade deficit reduced.

　　第五，这是美元作为主要国际货币的结果。二战结束后确立了以美元为中心的布雷顿森林体系，一方面，美国利用美元“嚣张的特权”向世界各国征收“铸币税”，美国印制一张百元美钞的成本不过区区几美分，但其他国家为获得这张美钞必须提供价值相当于100美元的实实在在的商品和服务。另一方面，美元作为主要国际货币客观上需要承担为国际贸易提供清偿能力的职能，美国通过逆差不断输出美元。美国贸易逆差背后有其深刻的利益基础和国际货币制度根源。

　　此外，美国统计方法相对高估了中美货物贸易逆差额。中美双方的统计差异长期存在，且差异较大。2017年，中国统计对美货物贸易顺差为2758亿美元，美国统计对华逆差接近3958亿美元，相差1000亿美元左右。由中美两国商务部相关专家组成的统计工作组，每年就中美贸易统计差异进行一次比较研究。根据该工作组测算，美国官方统计的对华贸易逆差每年都被高估20%左右。根据中国海关和美国商务部普查局的统计，双方统计结果在最近十年来的走势和变动幅度大致相同（图6）。引起差异的原因包括进口价格和出口价格之间的差异、转口贸易增值、直接贸易加价、地理辖区、运输时滞等。

Fifth, this is the result of the US dollar being a major global currency. The Bretton Woods system established after WWII was based on the US dollar. On the one hand, the US uses its “exorbitant privilege”  to levy seignorage on all countries. For the US the cost for printing a hundred-dollar bill is no more than a few cents, but other countries will have to provide real goods and services in exchange for that note. On the other hand, as a major global currency, the US dollar supports global trade settlements, and the US supplies US dollars to the world by way of a deficit. Therefore, beneath the US trade deficit lie profound US interests and the very root of the international currency system.

In addition, US statistics exaggerate its deficit in trade in goods with China. There has been a significant and long-standing statistical divergence between China and the US. In 2017, Chinese statistics recorded a Chinese surplus of US$275.8 billion, while US statistics showed it to be US$395.8 billion, a gap of about US$100 billion. The statistical working group comprising experts from the USDOC and MOFCOM compare every year the statistics from China and the US, and estimate that the US statistics overstate the trade deficit with China by 20% every year. According to statistics from China Customs and the USDOC, the dynamics of and gap between the two statistics have been largely the same over the past decade.(Chart 6) Causes for divergence include differences between CIF and FOB prices, transit trade value-added, direct trade markup, geographical jurisdiction, and shipping time delay.