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图表:图6:双边货物贸易差额:中美官方统计数据(亿美元) 新华社发
若以贸易增加值方法核算,美国对华逆差将大幅下降。中国对外贸易具有大进大出特点,中美贸易亦是如此。据中国商务部统计,从贸易方式看,中美贸易不平衡的61%来自加工贸易。中国在很多加工制成品出口中获得的增加值,仅占商品总价值的一小部分,而当前贸易统计方法是以总值(中国对美出口的商品全额)计算中国出口。世贸组织和经合组织等从2011年起倡导以“全球制造”新视角看待国际化生产,提出以“贸易增加值核算”方法分析各国参与国际分工的实际地位和收益,并建立了世界投入产出数据库。以2016年为例,据中国海关按照传统贸易总值的统计,中国对美顺差额为2507亿美元;但若根据世界投入产出数据库,从贸易增加值角度核算,中国对美贸易顺差为1394亿美元,较总值方法减少44.4%。
Chart 6:Bilateral Goods Deficit: China and US Statistics (US$100 million)
Source: China Customs, Bureau of Economic Analysis, USDOC
If calculated by value added, the deficit would decrease significantly. China’s foreign trade is characterized by large-scale imports and large-scale exports in processing, which applies to its trade with the US as well. According to MOFCOM, by trade methods, 61% of the China-US trade imbalance comes from processing. The value added in China accounts for only a small portion of the total value of many products, while the current approach is to calculate an export by aggregate (total value of goods exported). The WTO and the OECD started to advocate in 2011 a global perspective on production, and proposed to analyze the roles and benefits of all countries participating in the global distribution of labor by the approach of value-added accounting, for which the database WIOD was established. As an example, in 2016 conventional statistics show China’s surplus with the US to be US$250.7 billion. Based on the WIOD database and using the value-added approach, this would become US$139.4 billion, a 44.4% decrease from the aggregate approach.
(二)不应脱离世界贸易组织的互惠互利原则谈论公平贸易
近年来,美国从倡导“自由贸易”转向强调所谓“公平贸易”,并赋予其新解释。现任美国政府强调的所谓“公平贸易”不是基于国际规则,而是以“美国优先”为前提,以维护美国自身利益为目标。其核心是所谓“对等”开放,即各国在每个具体产品的关税水平和每个具体行业的市场准入上都与美国完全一致,寻求绝对对等。在美国政府看来,美国与其他国家市场开放“不对等”使美国处于不公平的贸易地位,并导致双边贸易不平衡。这种对等概念,与世界贸易组织的互惠互利原则并不一致。
2. The discussion of fair trade should not be detached from the principle of mutual benefit of the WTO
In recent years, the US has turned away from “free trade” to advocating so-called “fair trade”, to which it has added new meanings. Unlike previous administrations, the incumbent administration emphasizes a “fair trade” that is not based on international rules but “America first”, or the protection of America’s own interests. The core is so-called “reciprocal” opening, an idea of absolute equality, believing that all countries should apply identical tariff levels and provide identical market access in all sectors in their dealings with the US. In the eyes of the US government, the lack of reciprocity in market opening in other markets puts the US in an unfair position, and leads to bilateral trade imbalances. Such a concept of reciprocity is inconsistent with the reciprocal and mutually advantageous principle of the WTO.